Crash Game Calculator

What an Aviator cash-out target changes, and what it costs

Your cash-out target does not change what a crash game costs you. Aviator returns 97% of what is bet over the long run, so every $100 you stake costs about $3 on average, whether you cash out at 1.5x or wait for 100x. The target only decides how often you win and how big each win is.

Take $1 a round for 100 rounds. At a 2x target the plane reaches 2x in 48.5% of rounds, so you win about 48 or 49 times and the expected result is a $3 loss. You finish ahead in 34.43% of these sessions. Raise the target to 10x and you hit only 9.7% of rounds, but the chance of finishing ahead rises to 37.74%, because a few big wins can cover many small losses. The average cost stays at $3.

Session length matters more than the target. Play 1,000 rounds at 2x and the chance of finishing ahead drops to 16.34%, because the 3% edge has more rounds to work. High targets leave more room for a lucky run, but they also bring long dry runs: at 100x, 37.7% of 100-round sessions never hit once.

That is why Aviator predictors, signal channels and auto cash-out tricks cannot beat the game. Each round's crash point is drawn on its own, so a run of low crashes says nothing about the next round. A strategy can trade frequent small wins for rare large ones, and the 3% cost stays the same either way.

For a bankroll check, divide your bankroll by your stake to get the rounds it covers at a flat bet, and enter that as the session length. The table under the result shows the same session at six common targets.

How the numbers are worked out: a crash game keeps the same RTP at every target only if a round reaches target m with probability RTP ÷ m. At 97% and 2x that is 0.97 ÷ 2 = 0.485. A session of n rounds is ahead when hits × m is more than n, so the chance of finishing ahead is the binomial chance of at least that many hits. For 100 rounds at 2x you need 51 hits; exactly 50 leaves you level, which the calculator counts as not ahead. We checked every figure on this page against an independent calculation. The model does not cover a game's maximum win cap, bets cashed out by hand at different points in the same round, or bonus and free bet rules.