Calculate poker expected value, break-even probability, and long-run profit for a call, bet, or other two-outcome decision.
Poker expected value is the average profit or loss from repeating the same decision. Multiply each outcome by its probability, then add the results. For a two-outcome decision, EV = (win probability x net win) - (loss probability x amount lost). Positive EV is profitable only when the probabilities and payouts are realistic.
These examples use net profit when the play wins and the full amount at risk when it loses. The calculation is shown per decision.
| Decision | Win chance | Net win | Amount lost | Expected value | Break-even chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 call to win $200 | 40% | $200 | $100 | +$20 | 33.3% |
| $100 call to win $150 | 35% | $150 | $100 | -$12.50 | 40% |
| $40 value bet | 70% | $80 | $40 | +$44 | 33.3% |
| $50 river bluff | 30% fold chance | $100 pot | $50 | -$5 | 33.3% |
A call normally has two outcomes. A semi-bluff can win immediately or reach showdown, so the branches must not be collapsed into one guessed percentage.
| Spot | Formula | What to estimate | Common mistake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Call | P(win) x net win - P(lose) x call | Equity and net pot won | Counting your returned call as profit |
| Pure bluff | P(fold) x pot - P(call) x bet | Fold frequency, pot, and bet | Using showdown equity in a no-showdown model |
| Semi-bluff | Add fold, showdown-win, and showdown-loss branches | Fold equity plus conditional showdown equity | Adding fold equity directly to hand equity |
Start by defining profit and loss consistently. If you call $100 and can win $200 already in the pot, enter $200 as the amount won and $100 as the amount lost. Do not enter the final pot size if it includes your returned call. Returned money is not profit, and counting it twice makes a marginal call look much better than it is.
The break-even percentage is the fastest check. Divide the amount at risk by the amount at risk plus the net amount won. Risking $100 to win $200 needs 33.3% equity. If your estimate is 40%, the play is worth $20 on average: 0.40 x $200 minus 0.60 x $100. You can still lose this hand. The number describes the average across repeated decisions with the same inputs.
Calls and simple value bets fit the two-outcome calculator well. Bluffs need more care. For a pure river bluff, the win probability is the chance the opponent folds, the win amount is the pot you collect, and the loss amount is your bet. A semi-bluff has at least three branches: the opponent folds, the opponent calls and you win, or the opponent calls and you lose. Calculate each branch separately and add the weighted results.
Your probability estimate matters more than extra decimal places. Equity software can estimate showdown chances, but fold equity comes from ranges, position, bet size, and the opponent. Run a few plausible estimates instead of trusting one optimistic number. If the decision flips from positive to negative after a small change, it is close enough that reads, rake, and execution can decide it.
Rake and rewards belong in the final comparison, but they should stay visible. Subtract applicable rake or fees from the outcome they affect. Add rakeback as a separate return rather than using it to excuse a losing table or a clearly negative decision. That keeps the poker EV calculation honest and makes room comparisons easier to audit.
EV, or expected value, is the average amount a decision wins or loses when the same situation is repeated many times. Positive EV decisions make money in the model; negative EV decisions lose money in the model.
For two outcomes, use EV = (win probability x net amount won) - (loss probability x amount lost). For more than two outcomes, multiply every outcome by its probability and add all of the weighted values.
Divide the amount you can lose by the amount you can win plus the amount you can lose. Risking $100 to win $200 has a break-even probability of 100 / (200 + 100), or 33.3%.
No. Enter net profit, not total money returned. If a winning call returns both the pot and your call, remove the returned call before entering the win amount.
Weight at least three branches: the opponent folds, the opponent calls and you win, and the opponent calls and you lose. Do not add fold equity directly to showdown equity because the events happen under different conditions.
No. A positive EV play can lose immediately. Expected value is a long-run average based on the probabilities and payouts entered, so short-term results can differ sharply because of variance.
Pot Odds Calculator
Calculate poker pot odds, required equity, exact draw chances, and whether the price supports a call or fold.
Break-Even Calculator
Calculate the break-even percentage for bluffs and hero calls. See how often your bluff needs to work or how much equity you need to call.
Poker Variance Calculator
Calculate confidence intervals and standard deviation for your poker results. See how many hands you need for statistically meaningful results.
Result matched offer
This decision is +$20.00 EV per repetition. CoinPoker's 15% rakeback is separate from the hand-level result, so compare it after table quality, rake, and fees.
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Apply this EV edge at CoinPokerExpected value is the average profit or loss from repeating the same decision with the same probabilities and payouts. It is a decision-making estimate, not a prediction for the next hand.
Enter net profit in the win field. If you risk $100 to win $200 already in the pot, the profitable outcome is $200 and the losing outcome is -$100. Your returned $100 call is not profit.
A positive result can still lose immediately. Variance separates one observed result from the long-run average, especially when the edge is small or the outcome is rare.
Test a realistic range of win probabilities. If the result changes sign after a one- or two-point adjustment, treat the spot as close and review the ranges, rake, and bet size before acting on it.
This calculator models two outcomes. Calculate fold, showdown-win, and showdown-loss branches separately for a semi-bluff.
